Hezbollah and Israel Brace for Fallout as Ceasefire Ends
Israeli troops have withdrawn from several areas in southern Lebanon, while Hezbollah faces military and financial challenges, leaving the region on edge
After weeks of fragile calm, the extended ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has officially ended. Israeli troops have begun withdrawing from several areas in southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese army moves in to fill the void. However, Israel is maintaining control over five key strategic positions, Hezbollah is grappling with financial and military setbacks, and tensions remain high, leaving the situation precarious.
Israeli Withdrawal and Lebanese Army Deployment
As part of the ceasefire arrangement, Israel has begun pulling its troops out of certain villages in southern Lebanon. However, it is retaining control over five strategic locations, raising concerns about renewed hostilities. Reports indicate that more than 1,500 Israeli troops have participated in the withdrawal process, gradually handing over control to the Lebanese army and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers. The process includes logistical maneuvers to relocate heavy artillery and military equipment back to Israeli territory while keeping intelligence operations active.
A Lebanese political analyst, who asked to be identified only as Ahmad due to security concerns, emphasized the strategic implications: “Hezbollah has not been eliminated, so I understand why Israel wants to maintain a military advantage. However, as long as intelligence and air superiority remain intact, withdrawing from those five points shouldn’t compromise internal security,” he told The Media Line.
Abraham Levine, a speaker and digital content manager at the Alma Research and Education Center in northern Israel, defended Israel’s position: “These locations are crucial because they prevent Hezbollah from gaining a tactical advantage. At least one of these areas has been used to launch anti-tank missiles at Israeli civilian roads,” he told The Media Line.
Israeli Strategy: Retaining 5 Key Positions
Despite withdrawing from several areas, Israel insists on holding five strategic vantage points that provide oversight of key routes and prevent Hezbollah from regaining a foothold in the area.
Levine elaborated: “These high-ground positions allow Israel to monitor and control movement along the border.”
He also stressed their defensive significance: “Hezbollah has previously used these areas to launch attacks toward Israel, so relinquishing them would be a security risk.”
Ahmad, however, questioned Israel’s rationale: “Unless there are undiscovered weapons depots, maintaining control of these positions seems unnecessary. Israel has yet to clarify its reasoning for staying.”
Hezbollah’s Military and Financial Struggles
With the ceasefire over, Hezbollah faces mounting challenges. The group has suffered significant losses in both personnel and infrastructure while struggling financially due to Israeli airstrikes, international sanctions, and disrupted Iranian funding and weapons smuggling through Syria.
Ahmad described the extent of Hezbollah’s difficulties: “Hezbollah is encircled. The northern and eastern borders are closed, the southern border is a front line, and now Iran is struggling to deliver funds and access to Beirut airport. This isn’t just about weapons—it’s about money. Despite that, the ideology remains very strong.”
Levine echoed this sentiment: “Hezbollah’s leadership is weakened, and while its fighters remain, their commanders are being systematically targeted.”
The Role of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL
With Israeli troops withdrawing, the Lebanese army, alongside UNIFIL, is now responsible for maintaining stability. However, doubts persist over the army’s ability to contain Hezbollah’s influence and prevent further escalation.
Ahmad was skeptical. “The Lebanese army includes Amal members, who won’t engage Hezbollah. An armed conflict between them is unlikely. So hopefully, they will find a way to maintain order,” he said.
Levine remained cautiously optimistic: “Both the IDF and the Lebanese army share a goal—to prevent Hezbollah from reestablishing itself as a threat. There’s potential for cooperation.”
UNIFIL’s effectiveness remains a contentious issue. Ahmad was critical: “UNIFIL has been largely ineffective and, in some cases, has worsened the situation.”
Levine concurred: “Whenever UNIFIL challenges Hezbollah, it faces violent retaliation. This has been the case for years.”
Hezbollah’s Propaganda and Nasrallah’s Funeral
Amid rising tensions, Hezbollah has ramped up its propaganda efforts. Its media arm, Al-Mayadeen, recently published a video warning Israel: “Be ready. We will strike again soon.”
Ahmad dismissed this as theatrics: “This is mostly propaganda and a way to save face. Hezbollah lacks the infrastructure for another full-scale fight, but people still show support for them because it is still a symbol of resistance against Israel.”
Meanwhile, the long-delayed funeral of the late Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is set to take place soon. Analysts see the event as an attempt to rally support at a critical time for the organization.
Levine noted: “The more Nasrallah is glorified, the worse Naeem Qasim looks in comparison. Nasrallah earned legitimacy through military victories. Qasim, so far, has achieved nothing.”
Ahmad agreed: “Qasim took over at the worst possible time. Hezbollah is weakened, and he lacks Nasrallah’s authority.”
An Uncertain Future
With the ceasefire officially over, the region faces an uncertain future. Israel’s withdrawal from several areas marks a shift, but its retention of five key positions highlights persistent security concerns. Hezbollah, weakened both militarily and financially, struggles to maintain its influence. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army and UNIFIL are tasked with maintaining order, though doubts about their effectiveness remain.
As Hezbollah pushes its propaganda efforts and prepares for Nasrallah’s funeral, the group’s future remains uncertain. Whether the region will spiral back into open conflict or find a path toward stability depends on the actions of key players in the coming weeks.
Levine summed it up: “I hope the IDF has learned from past mistakes, and we won’t see more unnecessary casualties from now on.”
Ahmad offered a more pragmatic perspective about the future. “If internal conflicts within Lebanon continue similarly to what happened during the civil war, external forces like Israel may see little reason to escalate military action and may take advantage of it. If your enemy is in crisis and does the job for you, why directly intervene?” he concluded.